The latest analysis of the price trend of various

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The latest analysis of the price trend of various electronic components

at this time last year, suppliers were still struggling to survive. Now, the 2009 annual report has been released, and the performance of many suppliers' annual reports is better than even the most optimistic analysts expected. The reason for this change is simple: suppliers cut costs sharply, followed by strong demand, which led to subsequent high equipment utilization

in this case, suppliers are naturally happy, but some products are in serious shortage. Of course, not all products are affected. In fact, the delivery time of some products has also been improved. However, the situation of commodities in short supply has worsened, and there has been a phenomenon of double ordering and rationing

as iSuppli pointed out last month, in order to better understand why there is a shortage, we need to understand the following factors:

1 Electronic component manufacturers continue to adopt a very conservative attitude towards expanding production capacity. ISuppli predicts that in 2010, the capital expenditure of this group style calculation and analysis market will increase by 20% compared with 2009, but it will still be 30% lower than the historical average level from 2004 to 2008

2. The market inventory continues to be reduced, and the acceptable inventory level of suppliers and distributors is still low. Although 9 of the 10 nodes tracked by iSuppli are close to historical lows, some suppliers have said that they are willing to maintain the current inventory level, and only EMS has some increase in inventory

3. After a long period of difficulties, the income of component suppliers is very high. In the case of increased profits but uncertain market, it is a logical choice to stand still

overall, iSuppli predicts that as demand remains strong, the global economic outlook becomes clearer, and suppliers' attitudes will change. As the third quarter approaches, suppliers will again seek to expand market share while maintaining their bottom line of profitability. Of course, this will only happen if market demand continues to be strong

the following is the latest analysis of the price trend of various electronic components



in the fourth quarter of 2009, the regulator market grew at a higher rate of one percentage point, mainly due to the impact of the economic stimulus plans of China, the United States and Europe

the growth of the consumer electronics market, such as notebook computers, desktop computers, mp3/pmp and LCD TVs, has brought growth to the voltage regulator market. In addition, in the fourth quarter, the growth of industrial and wired communication markets also contributed to the growth of the regulator market. Most consumer markets, such as and personal computers, have expanded, which is also reflected in the voltage regulator market. The previous assessment of the regulator Market in 2009 was 16.4% lower than that in 2008. Now, due to the rising market demand for these products, this assessment has been raised

after the price increase in January, as demand still exceeds supply, the survival of every exhausted enterprise is to ensure a certain profit space, and the inventory needs to be replenished. Therefore, this trend of price growth will continue. It will take several months to reach a balance between supply and demand. It is expected that during this period, the device prices of all major suppliers, such as Texas Instruments (TI) and on semi, will increase

in terms of supply, the inventory of suppliers has been greatly reduced. The rising demand in the second half of 2009 caused the imbalance between supply and demand, which may continue until the end of the second quarter of 2010

in January, the supply period of the regulator market was extended again, and manufacturers with large shipments generally experienced supply shortages. It is expected that this situation will continue in the first and second quarters of 2010, and the rationing of products may occur in the second quarter

operational amplifier/interface

in January, the price of operational amplifier rose again. In the first few months of 2009, the high inventory of suppliers caused the erosion of the price of operational amplifiers. But now, the price of operational amplifiers has rebounded. The strong demand in the first quarter of 2010, coupled with the panic reduction of production capacity by suppliers at the beginning of this year, led to the extension of the supply period in the new year. In January, the delivery period will be extended again and will last until the first and second quarters. In January, the average selling price of operational amplifiers rose. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the average selling price of operational amplifiers will rise in the first and second quarters. It is expected that the delivery time and average selling price will stabilize by the second half of 2010

like operational amplifiers, the price of interface IC products rose in January. Due to the imbalance between high demand and supply and demand, the price of interface IC products will continue to rise in the first quarter. For the same reason, the delivery date of interface IC products was also extended in January. PC and the market are important supports for the interface IC market. The rising demand of these two markets has led to the recovery of the interface IC market in the previous quarters. Looking forward to the future, iSuppli predicts that the delivery time and average sales price of a certain diameter steel ball or cemented carbide ball will stabilize in the second half of 2010


ceramic capacitance

the demand for ceramic capacitors has been stable, and a large amount of production capacity makes there will be no shortage of ceramic capacitors. However, there are some exceptions, especially the 0805 package with high capacity of 4.7 µ F and the 0603 and 0402 package with 1 µ F. By the first quarter of 2010, the supply period of these ceramic capacitors will be relatively long, but rationing will not be implemented. ISuppli believes that despite the tight market supply, the market price will decline moderately because suppliers are unwilling to give up any market share. It is worth noting that the supply period of ceramic capacitors varies greatly with the price. The product with the lowest price has the lowest profit and the longest supply period. ISuppli believes that there will be no rationing, and it is expected that the supply situation will improve by the second quarter of 2010 because large manufacturers have increased the production capacity of high-profit products (such as high-capacity capacitors)

tantalum capacitors

market demand has slowed down slightly, but due to limited supply, its supply period or price pressure will not be greatly relieved. Especially for low ESR products, the delivery period will remain stable between weeks. As suppliers arrange production according to the profit margin, the prices of some very cheap products rise selectively, and customers can perceive the trend of market prices according to the extension of supply period. Polymer capacitors will occupy a certain market position, because the price is close to tantalum capacitors, and its market will expand

electrolytic capacitor

demand slowed down slightly, but driven by the continuously improving consumer market, some demand is still very strong. Specifically, the supply of high-voltage capacitors used in TV power supply is tight. The overall delivery time has improved slightly. By the second quarter of 2010, the delivery time will continue to improve, and there will be no long-term supply shortage in the market. However, the recovery of automobile market demand may prolong the delivery period. The price rise of raw materials will not be reflected in the price of components at least for the rest of the first quarter. If the market demand remains strong after the first quarter of 2010, some moderate price increases may occur in the third quarter


from the beginning of the lunar new year, demand has rebounded rapidly. When entering the second quarter, the demand for consumer products will remain strong. As the prices of raw materials, such as gold and copper, remain high and may rise, the average sales price in the market will remain relatively stable. Under the dual situation of slowing demand and rising material costs, suppliers still face the pressure of price reduction. The delivery period of standard products will be kept within weeks


the demand of the crystal market has stabilized and the supply has improved, which means that the overall supply situation will continue to improve in the second quarter of 2010. The delivery period of partially packaged products (such as 2520) is still long. However, iSuppli believes that there will be no shortage in the first half of 2010. The only exception is the 26 MHz crystal, which has a delivery period of more than 14 weeks on the spot market, and suppliers have noticed this. ISuppli predicts that this situation will continue to improve in the first quarter


filter demand is strong, and this trend will continue in the second quarter of 2010. Small size products on the market (1.1 × 1.4mm and 1.6 × 2mm) is available for 10 weeks. The supply has improved, but the spot supply of these packaged products may still be tight in the first quarter of 2010. ISuppli predicts that the overall supply situation will improve in 2010 due to the increased production capacity of suppliers. The delivery period of other products will remain stable, and the price may fall slightly

logic devices

when we entered the end of the first quarter of 2010, the supply capacity of secondary market distributors and EMS was still "in doubt", and reports of weak order control and rationing were still common. Worse, the limited supply is not limited to certain specific products and packages, but seems to cover the entire range of logical products. The report shows that large OEMs are purchasing goods, but smaller customers can only rely on distributors and EMS for supply. The new production capacity is lower than expected. Reports of suppliers' reluctance to increase more capacity occur from time to time because they are worried that if the market changes, they will bear the burden of inventory alone. It is difficult for suppliers to raise prices because they cannot provide future products. So the good news is that the market price has not fluctuated with it. ISuppli believes that the market has only limited supply, and customers are willing to pay more as long as they receive the products they need. Before the first or second quarter of 2011, the supply period of the whole market will not return to the normal weekly level

magnetic components

magnetic beads

recently, there have been some signs of weak demand in the market. ISuppli predicts that this sign will continue until the first quarter. The supply period of the market in the first quarter will remain at 10 weeks, and the supply period in the second quarter will decrease slightly. Raw material prices remain high, which makes the possibility of price reduction smaller. In the first quarter, the market price of magnetic beads will be stable as a whole to assist users to complete performance, installation and commissioning in the shortest time

fixed inductors

the demand for inductors remains stable, but will decline at the end of the first quarter. The delivery period is maintained at 10 to 11 weeks, and it is expected that the delivery period will decrease slightly next month. Although the price of raw material copper remains high, the price of inductors will remain stable in the first quarter



with the end of the lunar new year, the demand for DRAM decreased slightly, but not much. DRAM prices fell in late January, but remained stable in February. It is expected that the price will be slightly weak in March


the price of NAND flash memory will decline slightly, but will continue to remain stable on the whole. Due to the seasonal decline in demand, the demand in March was weak, and its consumption had no special impetus


the problem of shortage of low-density products always exists. The price of 512MB and higher density products is declining slightly. Micron's acquisition of numonyx will not affect the recent market

crystal oscillator


wireless response

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