Should we refuel or step on the brake

2022-09-28
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Coal chemical industry: should we "refuel" or "step on the brake"

recently, Kailuan coal chemical circular economy project in Kailuan, Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 8billion yuan - "2 × 200000 tons of ethylene glycol and 2 × 200000 tons of coal tar hydrogenation "project laid the foundation in Ordos. "Kailuan Group's coal chemical projects have developed rapidly. Among them, the coke output will reach 9.4 million tons by the end of the year, becoming the largest independent coal chemical enterprise in China." A person in charge of Kailuan Group said

this problem can be solved not only in Ordos, but also in the whole country. All regions have shown great enthusiasm for coal chemical projects

the direct consequence of investment in the tropics is overcapacity. Among the six industries with overcapacity announced not long ago, coal chemical industry is on the list. Data show that at present, the overcapacity of coal chemical industry exceeds 30%. An official of the Ministry of industry and information technology revealed

coal chemical industry is considered as an industry to extend the coal industry chain and develop deep processing. It has been encouraged by governments at all levels for many years, but now it is included in the list of overcapacity. With the development of coal chemical industry, should we step on the "accelerator" or the "brake"

restraining excess mainly refers to traditional coal chemical industry, and modern coal chemical industry focuses on curbing its blind development.

coal chemical industry is a concept that includes many kinds of products. Coke, synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide and methanol belong to traditional coal chemical industry, and China has a long history of development. Coal chemical industry such as coal to oil, olefin, dimethyl ether and methane gas is a new industry, which belongs to modern coal chemical industry. Excess mainly refers to the traditional coal chemical industry that has entered the mature stage, while the modern coal chemical industry has just started in China, and many are still in the demonstration stage

take methanol as an example. This year, one province has planned a capacity of 12million tons of resin used in plastic products and films, and another province has planned a capacity of 6million tons. Last year, the total output of methanol in the country was 11.26 million tons. Experts predict that by 2010, most of the existing coal to methanol projects in China will be put into operation, and the methanol production capacity will reach 32million tons. Even if the operating rate is 70%, there will be a serious surplus

repeated construction has aggravated the surplus of traditional coal chemical industry. Under the impact of sluggish exports and imported products, the operating rate of methanol plant in the first half of 2009 was only about 40%

as for the development of emerging coal chemical industry, an official of the national development and Reform Commission also expressed concern: "at present, the coal to liquid demonstration project is still in the pilot production stage, and the coal to olefin demonstration project is still in the construction or preliminary work stage, but some regions blindly plan modern coal chemical projects, and if they are not standardized and guided in time, there will be a chaotic situation of 'every coal will be transformed and blooming everywhere'."

excess is directly expressed through price. Data shows that from July to December 2008, the price of soda ash in China fell by 40%, the price of yellow phosphorus fell by 41%, the price of methanol fell by 46.5%, the price of styrene butadiene rubber fell by 64.8%, and the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber fell by 65.6%. Only some high-end products fell slightly

accompanied by overcapacity, the unreasonable structure of coal chemical industry began to deteriorate. Pan Derun, vice president of Sinopec Association, said for example: "An enterprise in Guangdong plans to build 300000 tons/year of sulfur dyes in Inner Mongolia, which is more than enough to supply the global market. At present, the national planned capacity of coal to olefins has reached 20million tons/year, and the capacity of coal to natural gas has reached 31.21 billion cubic meters/year. What is more prominent is that a certain place plans to build two 1million tons of soda ash projects in an area less than 20 kilometers away, which is analyzed in terms of ecology, market, transportation and other aspects Are unreasonable. "

many factors, such as the government's one-sided GDP complex and the lack of industry information, have jointly induced a "mass rush" chaos

"at present, there is a tendency worthy of attention, starting new projects and moving forward, and eliminating backward production capacity." Xiongbilin, an inspector of the Industrial Coordination Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said: "there are deep roots of overcapacity in coal chemical industry.

some local governments regard GDP as a hero, unilaterally pursue expansion of scale, coupled with the lack of industry information disclosure and market analysis, especially when the coal chemical industry is generally favored by local governments, it is easy to lead to 'herd'."

in the survey, we found that we all understand the consequences of overcapacity. For example, the huge waste of social resources, environmental pollution, and excessive dependence on foreign markets for economic growth have led to increased risks in economic operation... If it is allowed to develop, it will eventually lead to serious consequences such as mass bankruptcy of enterprises, mass unemployment, and the increase of non-performing assets of banks. However, it is really difficult for local governments and enterprises to accurately grasp the phased and structural characteristics of coal chemical surplus. "Excess is only a phased performance caused by the current financial crisis. With the recovery of the global economy, even the demand for traditional coal chemical products will also boost. Our investment plan will not be blocked." The words of the boss of a traditional coal chemical enterprise in Shanxi represent the views of a considerable number of people in the industry

this view is particularly prominent in the emerging coal chemical industry. Despite repeated orders from the government to regulate, all regions still showed extraordinary enthusiasm for investment. Taking coal to liquid as an example, with the completion and operation of coal to liquid projects of super large coal enterprises such as Shenhua, some coal rich areas have invested in and expanded coal to liquid projects. "Even according to the current oil price, the profits of the coal to oil project are also very considerable. In the future, the oil price is still on the rise. If coal enterprises want to explore new economic growth points, they can't choose the right direction to develop coal to oil." The person in charge of a coal enterprise in Changzhi, Shanxi told

in this regard, Zhang Yong, director of the Policy Research Department of the China Coal Industry Association, said that China's development of coal to liquids is only for the consideration of technology and strategic reserves. As for the environmental cost of coal to liquid, the utilization of water resources, as well as the risks after the enlarged operation, a series of problems still need to be comprehensively demonstrated and considered

"blocking" and "Dredging" should be taken into account to ensure that industrial policies and various supporting measures are implemented in place.

anyway, the surplus of coal chemical industry is an indisputable fact

on August 26 this year, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to include coal chemical industry as a key industry to strengthen guidance. This is the first time that the country has included coal chemical industry in the ranks of overcapacity and structural adjustment. The competent government departments will comprehensively use legal, economic, financial, technical and necessary administrative means to rectify and adjust, including raising the threshold of technology, capital, environmental protection and so on

coke, as a traditional sub industry of coal chemical industry, may improve the average profit margin of Clariant and face a "approval restriction" for new projects in three years; Calcium carbide and other industries with serious overcapacity will not increase new production capacity in principle within 3 to 5 years, and will implement equal substitution, that is, the same amount of backward production capacity must be eliminated when it comes to advanced production capacity; Replace synthetic ammonia and methanol with large ones and reduce production capacity; For modern coal chemical industry, no new pilot projects will be arranged in principle in the next three years

"the key to eradicating overcapacity lies in the complete transformation of the concept of development by governments and enterprises at all levels, which requires further changes and improvements in the performance evaluation indicators for governments at all levels. Performance evaluation is like a baton, which points in the right direction, and development can be scientific." Huangtaiyan, a professor at the school of economics of Renmin University of China, said

the opinions on curbing overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries and guiding the healthy development of industries approved and transmitted by the State Council not long ago stipulates: "Local people's governments at all levels shall not force enterprises to invest in low-level industries with overcapacity.... the acts of serious dereliction of duty or mistakes resulting in heavy losses or adverse effects in violation of national land and environmental protection laws and regulations, credit policies and industrial policies shall be held accountable and seriously dealt with."

in dealing with excess, "blocking" is important, but "Dredging" must not be ignored. "The elimination of backward production capacity involves various issues such as employee employment, enterprise production conversion, debt resolution, etc. while the state has introduced a series of policies and measures, it must do a good job in related supporting work in combination with reality. Only when the top is blocked and the bottom is sparse, and the two 'heads' are smooth, can the excess contradiction be truly resolved.

otherwise, even if the excess is suppressed, the contradiction will exist and manifest in other ways." Huang Taiyan said

The impact of the financial crisis has brought opportunities to curb overcapacity and promote structural adjustment. As the largest coal chemical enterprise in Hebei, Kailuan Group actively promotes structural adjustment and builds the value chain of coal chemical industry. According to the comparison between the benefits of primary coal products and deep processing, the benefits of primary coal processing (processing into clean coal) can be doubled; Secondary processing (coal coking) can reach 3-5 times. At present, Kailuan Group has built Qian'an coal chemical industry park and Jingtang Port coal chemical industry park, forming a processing capacity of 9.4 million tons of coke, 200000 tons of methanol, 100000 tons of benzene hydrogenation and 300000 tons of coal tar. It has become an independent coal chemical enterprise with the largest comprehensive scale, the most complete recycling industry chain and the first advance in energy conservation and emission reduction technology in China

"whoever loses no time to implement the adjustment of product structure, enterprise organizational structure and industrial layout structure, adopt new products and technologies, and eliminate backward production capacity, will seize the opportunity for post recovery development." A person in charge of Kailuan Group said

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